analzying past prediction for 3,000 hit club

3000-hit-club

Yesterday Starlin Castro became the youngest Cub to reach 900 hits. I was trying to find who was the youngest Cub to reach 1,000 and came across a July 6, 2011 article by Bleacher Report giving a list of “12 Players Who should Reach 3,000 Career Hits“.

Well, it’s been almost four years. Let’s see how they did.

1. Ivan Rodriguez
2,842 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,844 career hits as of 6/3/2015
off by 156
last year of service: 2011
This one is simply the best. After this article Rodriguez managed to get just two more career hits. TWO!

2. Alex Rodriguez
2,760 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,987 career hits as of 6/3/2015
active (age 39)
He needs just 13 more.
Bleacher Report got this one right.

3. Johnny Damon
2,662 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,769 career hits (no longer playing)
off by 231 hits
last year of service: 2012

4. Ichiro Suzuki
2,342 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,877 as of 6/3/2015
needs 123
hits per year until age of 40: Well, he’s 41 right now.
active (age 41)

5. Michael Young
1,958 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,375 career hits (no longer playing)
off by 625
last year of service: 2013 (age 36)

6. Albert Pujols
1,978 career hits as of 7/6/2011
2,568 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs 432
active (age 35)
hits needed per year until age of 40: 87
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 5 years, he needs to bat .157

7. Juan Pierre
1,929 career hits
2,217 career hits (no longer playing)
off by 783
last year of service: 2013 (age 36)

8. Carl Crawford
1,544 career hits
1,880 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs 1,120 hits
active (age 33)
hits needed per year until age of 40: 160
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 7 years, he needs to bat .291

9. Jose Reyes
1,243 career hits
1,798 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs 1,202
active (age 31)
hits needed per year until age of 40: 134
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 7 years, he needs to bat bat .243

10. Robinson Cano
1,171 career hits
1,887 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs 1,113
active (age 32)
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 8 years, he needs to bat .253
hits needed per year until age of 40: 140

11. Adrian Gonzalez
1,021 career hits
1697 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs
active (age 33)
hits needed per year until age of 40: 187
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 7 years, he needs to bat .338

12. Joe Mauer
1,032 career hits
1592 career hits as of 6/3/2015
needs 1,408 hits
active (age 32)
hits needed per year until age of 40: 176
If he maintains 550 at bats per year for the next 8 years, he needs to bat .320

12 active players reaching 3,000 hits is just plain nutty.

Break down the history of baseball into 20-year generations, because that’s just about the length a player needs to get 3,000 hits. Dating back to 1871 there are 6.2 generations. I’m ruling out 1995-2015 because those guys are still playing.

There are 27 players to get 3,000 hits. Derek Jeter is ruled out because he’s in the 1995-2015 generation. For the benefit of the doubt Craig Biggio and Rafael Palmerio are included. This all equates to 4.35 players per generation going the 3,000 hit club.

Not 12, but 4.35.

Out of the Bleacher Report’s group of 12, I’m betting two, maybe three get there. Arod for sure. Pujols is in good shape. Ichiro, at the age of 41, is on the brink, but he’ll probably need to play another year and I’m not sure he’s going to do that. Reyes is a candidate, but I don’t see him holding up for another 9 years. The same for Cano. Adrian Gonzalez, Mauer, and Crawford are completely out. And of course there’s the guys on the list who are no longer playing.

It would be interesting to predict which four active players will get to 3,000. Pujols, Arod, and Ichiro need not be included because they’re in the twilight of their careers. The crop is tricky. Miguel Cabrera? Adam Jones? Starlin Castro? I have a hard time seeing any of those three make it.

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