Please use this blog post to discuss how you are doing in MLB’s Beat the Streak this year.
I like being able to capture my thoughts on Beat the Streak during each season. Lately, those comments have been spread across Facebook, Reddit, and Bluesky. I’d like to have a place on my own site where I can record what happens throughout the year.
In past years, I would make a blog post dedicated for that season. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014: Updates would be made in the comments. It’s hard to believe I haven’t made a blog post for that since 2014. Probably because starting in 2011, I had an entire website (57hits.com) set up to talk about Beat the Streak. However, the discussions on 57hits.com would be separated across multiple blog posts.
I like the idea of having an annual discussion board. So this is the discussion board for the 2025 Beat the Streak season. I’ll continue to post on places like Reddit’s r/BeatTheStreak and the Facebook Group. But I’ll also add my personal comments to this post.
Ideas for what to talk about:
- What is your pick average?
- What’s your longest streak this year?
- Who stopped your streak?
- Excited about any players you are starting?
I welcome you to add any comments about your 2025 streaks on this post. Thank you.
If you aren’t signed up for Beat the Streak, you can play at mlb.com/apps/beat-the-streak/game
Sal Frelick for 35
(if he’s batting leadoff. In the past 14 games, there were four games when Frelick was dropped from 1st to 5th, 6th, or 7th in the lineup)
I’m breaking my strategy of trying to pick an away batter. I just can’t avoid Arizona’s starting pitcher Eduardo Rodríguez. He ranks 211th for H9.
I almost went with Yelich, because I like Yelich’s numbers the past three seasons. But Frelick has better BTS numbers this year.
Sal Frelick is not leading off (he’s batting 5th). I’m taking Brice Turang today since he’s leading off.
I have to say as a Cubs fan, this is forcing me to get to know Milwaukee’s players. Both Sal Frelick and Brice Turang seem like great 23-year-old players.
Brice Turang got my streak to 35 games!
The Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 7-5, getting 10 hits. Turang went 1-for-4, 0 BB, 0 K. Turang had two hard hits. Neither resulted in a hit. Instead, it was his bloop single that saved the day.
My original pick was Sal Frelick. But I saw he wasn’t batting leadoff, so I went with Turang. Frelic went 0-for-4. Frelick didn’t hit any balls hard.
It’s amazing how something quite random changes a pick. The fact that Turang batted leadoff didn’t do anything for him getting a hit. Turang got is single in the bottom of the 3rd, so he didn’t need the extra at bat that leadoff sometimes gets.
Otherwise, I was completely set on Frelick, and I preferred Frelick over Turang. I would have picked Frelick, and my streak would have ended. It’s bizarre luck, just like this, that has been following me during my streak so far.
Bo Bichette for 36
I’m now using a new system that automatically imports data from fangraphs. Then I do some number crunching. Mostly looking at hitters’ H9 in the past three years. And pitchers’ H9 from this year.
Here’s how my rankings come out for today. The bullet points are my notes to myself as I think through the process.
I only share this, because somehow I got up to 35 games, so others might like to see some of the process. When I reset to zero, I won’t be going into such detail on my comments.
Jeremy Peña HOU
– Home
– Is tops in my rankings, but i’m concerned with his injury a month ago. His play has dipped in August.
– almost always bats 1st. Once every couple weeks he’s 7th
Pass
Jose Altuve HOU
– Home
– Looks good. Not sure about his 50 GHP rank.
– mostly 3rd lately. Sometimes 2. Is batting 3rd. (Correa is 2nd)
Maybe
Yanier Diaz HOU
– Home
– His GHP rank is only 75.
Pass.
Bo Bichette TOR
– home
– 2 hard hit yesterday
– was 1st lineup until July. Now 3rd or 4th
– has been GREAT in August
– 12 hits in past 7 games
Maybe
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR
– home
– Yesterday first game back?
– two hard hit balls.
– hamstring tightness a week ago. No thanks.
Pass
Yandy Diaz of TBR
– away
– 1 hard hit yesterday
– 2 hard hit day before
– Cleveland starting pitcher Parker Messick
– 1 GS, 7 H, 6.2 IP
– Hmmm, don’t like the unknown.
Pass.
Junior Caminero of TBR
– away
– H1 4, H2 5
– Cleveland starting pitcher Parker Messick
Brice Turang MIL
– home
– Am I really going with Milwaukee again at home? Now they are playing Arizona
I’m not digging any of the teams that are away.
The teams at home… I can’t decide.
It comes down to this:
Which team is going to score more runs?
See attached screenshot. Now that I’m getting more sources for Vegas Implied Runs, it looks like Fantasylabs has different predictions and a wider range of values than the other three. The other three all have Toronto with more runs. In the future, I might be elminating Fantasylabs from my Implied Runs research.
Altuve is finally hitting again, but I can’t get myself to pick him. So Toronto it is. With Bo Bichette. He’s been really hot.
Bo Bichette brings my streak to 36 games. Going 2-for-4 against the Twins.
Today, the Twins starting pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson has a 43% H9, so he’s pretty average. Thus, I’m skipping Bo Bichette today.
Jeremy Peña for 37
Yeah, I’m also not a fan of taking the guy that everyone else is taking. But my goal now is to get up to 40.
Here’s the best batters my system put out, in rough order.
Bobby Witt Jr. KCR
– Away
– White Sox starting pitcher Aaron Civale
– 17 GS
– 59% H9
Skip. I want a worse starting pitcher.
Jarren Durran BOS
– 0/1/3 (hits past 1 ,2, 7 days)
Skip. Cold.
Trevor Story BOS
– Away
– Orioles starting pitcher Dietrich Enns
– 2 GS
Skip. Pass the unknown.
Corey Seager TEX
– Away
– 1/1/8 (hits past 1 ,2, 7 days)
– 84% for walking (walks alot)
– GHP 67th
– LAA starting pitcher Jack Kochanowicz
– 17 GS
– 10% H9 (gives up lots of hits)
– 55% BB9 (gives up average walks)
– LAA relief pitching
– 32% H9 (gives up lots of hits)
– 87% BB9 (gives up lots of walks)
I’m concerned a bit about walks
Marcus Semien TEX
– Away
– 0/3/8 (hits past 1, 2, 7 days)
– 57% walks (average walks)
– GHP 102nd
Skip. Not too crazy about his GHP
Jeremy Peña HOU
– Home
– 2/4/8
– 2 hard hits yesterday
– 21% walks (doesn’t walk much)
– COL starting pitcher Chase Dollander
– 18 GS
– 12% H9 (Gives up lots of hits)
– COL relief
– 1% H9 (Gives up lots of hits)
Austin Riley ATL
– 0/0/4
Skip. Cold.
Matt Olson ATL
– 10th GHP
– 1/1/6
– Two hard hits yesterday
– 93% BB9 (walks alot)
– MIA starting pitcher Ryan Gusto
– 16 GS
– 23% H9
– MIA relief
– 51% H9
– Bats 2nd since end of June (3 or 4 prior to that)
Ozzie Albies ATL
– 61st GHP
– 3/3/9
– 41% BB9
– Tends to bat 5th, 6th, or 7th
(The percentage for H9 and BB9 is percentile rankings)
Do I go with Jeremy Peña HOU or Ozzie Albies ATL? Vegas Implied Runs says:
(see attached image)
So it’s pretty much a tie.
What does baseballmusings say? They have Jeremy Pena on both lists. Ozzie doesn’t make it on either list. That makes sense with Ozzie batting low in the order. Odd that Matt Olson is not on either list. Oh, [he’s having a bad month](https://www.batterypower.com/general/118488/whats-up-with-matt-olson-not-really-a-daily-question).
Ok, Jeremy Peña it is.
Jeremy Peña extends my streak to 37 games.
Last night was crazy. I thought my streak was going to end at 36 games. I had written a long entry about my feelings about reaching 36 games. I figured I should get my thoughts out during this time. Who knows how much longer this will last.
Plus, I’ve been working on putting together a blog post examining a players immediate past performance and how that impacts if he’ll get a hit today. Looking at the past 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7, 14, and 30 days. I really want to get the post up on my site. And then ultimately on Reddit while I still have a long streak.
I think sharing information while you have a long streak is more impactful than sharing the information when you have no streak. I want to be open and transparent about how I got to where I am. I don’t want to hide anything. The more I share, hopefully the more likely others will share their tips with me.
So I had this rush to get this post out before my streak ends. I’m thinking all day about how my streak might end.
It was a night game. Jeremy Pena was hitless in his first two at bats. I shared that with my daughters. Then while my daughters were getting ready for bed, I checked the game on my phone. Hitless in three at bats! Yipes. Not good. The game was low-scoring and low-hitting. Pena wasn’t going to get five plate appearances, so he was going to have just one more at bat.
The odds are not looking good when you have just one at bat to get a hit. I checked the box score before going to bed. Pena managed to chop a ball off home plate for a hit. The ball bounced so high, by the time the pitcher got to it. Pena was on first. 13-second video. Gotta love that -84° launch angle.
Also, thanks to the pitcher for not throwing the ball. If he tried to get Pena at first, it might have caused an error, and Pena would not have the hit. YIPES! THANK YOU Angel Chivilli.
My streak continues.
Pena had one hard-hit for the night, so I’m going to be less likely to go with Pena the following day.
Jeremy Peña for 38—maybe, actually nope. No picks today.Oh boy, I have Houston vs Colorado ranked high again. Makes sense, because y’know that’s how series works. You face the same team multiple times. But to have the same team reappear at the top of the recommendations, it goes to show just how bad Colorado’s pitching is. One starter after the other is bad.
I hesitate going with Jeremy Peña of HOU again. Ideally, I like to mix it up.
PHI vs ATL
This matchup is ranked high today because of ATL starting pitcher Cal Quantrill. Ranked 16% in H9. Although ATL’s relief pitching is above average (ranked 61% in H9).
Yesterday my streak continued because Jeremy Peña got a hit off Colorado’s relief pitching (which ranked in top 1% for most H9). I get nervous with ATL’s relief pitching being a 61%. Ideally, I like the relief pitching to be below 50%.
ATL vs PHI
Same relief argument goes for ATL in PHI. Aaron Nola (PHI) is 30% H9. But PHI’s relief pitching is 58%.
BOS @ BAL
Looks great! Especially since BOS is away. Cade Povich 22% H9. Relief 27%. Looks great! But BOS top hitters are cold
– Jarren Duran 2/2/5 (1-game, 2-game, 7-game)
– Trevor Story 0/2/6
– Ceddanne Rafaela 2/3/6
The 7-game of all three are a bit low. I prefer 7+
I don’t think I’m making a pick today. I’m using the excuse it’s a smaller schedule.
Yandy Díaz for 38 (or Maybe Bobby Witt for 38)Yandy Díaz and Bobby Witt 39
I love it when my system has an obvious pick.(my system didn’t look at a player’s home/away splits. I’m considering Yandy’s home/away splits. See replies.)Yandy Díaz TBR
Nico Hoerner CHC ranks high, especially since the Cubs are playing in Colorado. However:
Nico is my favorite current Cub. But I’m going to have to pass on him—even when he’s playing in Colorado!
Luis Arreaez is also tempting. Facing MIN’s Zebby Matthews with 11% H9. However:
Luis is cold.
Bobby Witt Jr. Everyone’s fav. He’s hitting 2/3/11. That 11 hits in the past 7 games is fantastic. But he’s playing at home. DET’s Chris Paddack is tempting with his 34% H9. But DET’s relief pitching is borderline at 50% H9.
I ALMOST want to pick Witt. But he seems used too much. Besides his 11 hits in the past 7 games is the equivalent to 9 hits in the past 7 games… at least in my model it is.
I’m on the Yandy Díaz train today. Although I’m slightly tempted to do a double-down with Witt. My system is so dependent on knowing the starting pitcher. I really don’t like picking players who are facing a starting pitcher with a handful of MLB games. September is right around the corner, along with the September call-ups. I kinda want to get a DD in during August.
To clarify:
Oh…. I didn’t explain my train of thought clearly.
Summary: I’m just trying to overcome the notion that I cannot do double-picks this late in my streak.
Yandy Diaz’s and Bobby Witt’s Home/Road splits in image attachment. (and in these Reddit comments)
Yandy Díaz and Bobby Witt got my streak to 39 games!
I wrote down stream-of-conscious thoughts today in my notebook.
Now this feels crazy. Well, it’s felt crazy all along. But man. A double-down to get to 39. I hate to say it, but I can taste 57. But that’s silly, because it’s so far away. 18 games. That’s an eternity in BTS. I’ve only gotten in the 20s twice in 21 years.
40 would be sweet.
Seeing all these people in the top 10 possibly fall down because Kyle Tucker is a stern wakeup call. Six people in the top 10 had Kyle Tucker. He’s 0-for-4 with the Cubs winning 11-4 and 15 hits. I watched third and 4th at bat live in MLB At Bat. His third at bat I was washing the dishes. When there was a wild pitch to Busch (batting 1st), the runners on 1st and 2nd went to 2nd and 3rd. Leaving first base open with the count of 3-0 to Busch. I can’t believe they didn’t walk him.
I want them to walk him, so the bases would be loaded and therefore an easier force-out, so Tucker would not get a hit.
But Busch got out. Then Tucker grounded out. All while I was washing dishes.
Then in his 4th at bat, Tucker got the count to 0-2. Then he got back to 3-2. Yeah, walk him! With the bases empty and two outs. But he grounded out. Wow.
If Tucker doesn’t get a hit, I go from 7th to 2nd.
I was getting a little nervous with all these people crowding the top 10. Would someone beat me to 57? That’s getting ahead of myself. But it does feel crowded.
The way this Cubs game is going though, Tucker might have another at bat, if the Cubs keep hitting. And now the game is 11-5. So it’s not a complete blowout.
I’ll have to watch the lineup tomorrow to see if Hoerner is batting near the top. THe Rockies have McCade Brown tomorrow. Righty. So Hoerner will not be near the top of the lineup. McCade Brown has 1 GS. Booo. Just 3.2 innings pitched.
I need to look up Freddie Freeman. It feels so weird picking Freddie Freeman. I don’t have a good gut feeling. He’s hitting at home. But his H/PA and GHP are both slightly better at home.
He’s 37 hits in his last 30 games. That’s good.
All his recents look good
1, 2, 8, 16, 37 (1-day, 2-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day)
In fact, they are some of the better recents near the top of my list.
His 36th GHP this year is not super great.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/freddie-freeman-518692?stats=gamelogs-r-hitting-statcast&season=2025
He’s got one hard hit from 8/26.
I wonder how he did tonight.
Man. This is the first time where I’m getting really nervous. I’ve been nervous before. But like, physically nervous. My stomach is starting to hurt. It might be the turkey taco casserole we had for dinner tonight. Or it might be the stress of this. I suppose it’s a good stress. It’s the stress any person who plays Beat the Streak wants to have. a 39-game streak.
Oh, I missed the Cubs top of the 9th. All of the sudden the Rockies are batting in the bottom of the 9th with the score 11-7 Cubs.
Cubbies! Finish this out! Man. I hate to root against other people since so many nice people on Reddit have been rooting for me.
So do I play Freddie Freeman. Or do i sit this out? I don’t feel like I have much other choice in players. (Unless the rarity that Nico bats high in the lineup). Or maybe I just go with Nico? Oh wait. Right, it’s the pitcher with 3.2 IP in his career.
Oh wait. Yandy Díaz looks really good.
WSN starter Jake Irvin 26% H9.
WSN relievers 40% H9.
CUBS WIN! Kyle Tucker goes 0-for-4 in a 11-7 Cubs win with the Cubs getting 15 hits. I’m now in 2nd place. Wow.
Oh man. So if I get 51 games, then that’s $10,000. Although once you get to 51, that’s like, so close to 57. It’s insane.
Ok, breathe. I’d be happy with 40. We are going for 40.
Then after that, I’d be ecstatic with 47. That’s like being in the top 15 ALL-TIME.
What is your username on BTS?
I’m user “spudart”.
What’s your username on BTS?
username abedinshawn.
Season high 34 for 2025.
I found your profile. Oh man. When you streak reached 16, you started to do single picks. Then the very moment when you start doing double-downs at 34, your streak ends.
Here’s a fun analysis of your picks so far this season.
Most frequent picks:
Bo Bichette 20
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 15
Bobby Witt Jr. 11
Trea Turner 8
Yandy Díaz 7
George Springer 7
Ernie Clement 5
Alejandro Kirk 5
Aaron Judge 5
Streakbusters (Players with most hitless games)
Alejandro Kirk 3
Otto Lopez 2
Jacob Wilson 2
Ernie Clement 2
Aaron Judge 2
Opponents that caused you the most trouble. (# they caused a hitless game)
TOR 4
NYY 4
COL 4
ATL 4
Your favorite opponents (Teams that extended your streaks)
Col: 20
NYY: 12
WSH: 9
PIT: 6
I had this in my notes. It’s from a couple days ago.
Yandy Díaz for 40
– Batting away, that’s good. This year his GHP on the road (.741) is much better than at home (.656)
– All his recent numbers look good
– G1: 1 hits
– G2: 2 hits
– G7: 10
– G14: 20
– G30: 31
– EV. He had only one hard hit ball last night. So that makes me slightly nervous. Along with a strikeout and a walk. He also walked the day before.
– 44% BB/PA (less than average amount of walks)
– WSN starter Jake Irvin
– 25% H9 (gives up a good amount of hits)
– 27 GS (good sample size)
– WSN relief
– 3% H9
I’ve been keeping track of my streak in the comments here. But with the big moment of my 39-game streak ending, I thought I’d make that into a blog post. https://www.57hits.com/my-39-game-streak-is-over
This streak reached the #2 spot in active streaks. And it was my longest streak in 21 years of playing Beat the Streak. It was a fun ride. I’m continuing to play.
Players I picked the most so far this year:
In my 39-game streak, I picked Aaron Judge just once. Huh. I guess by that point in the season, I knew Judge walked too much.
Players used in my 39-game streak:
Last night, leader BaseballMandy‘s streak ended at 40. Fernando Tatis went 0-for-4. Last night I questioned the pick, because Tatis likes to walk, and the starting pitcher likes to give up walks. However, Tatis’s goose egg was not because of walks. He didn’t walk at all.
Rather, Tatis struck out twice, and then had a sharp ground-out to second (102.7 MPH EV). Then he capped off the night with a weak fly to right (79.9 MPH EV).
Next up on the leaderboard is Schmidty with a 39-game streak.
Tonight’s leader, Schmidty, Judge for 40. Pretty baller move to select Judge. Judge’s HR tonight
ties him withmoves him past Joe DiMaggio for most HR by a Yankee.That’s so epic. Reaching 40 with a milestone HR that
ties Judge withmoves Judge past DiMaggio—the very guy that set the streak standard with his 56-game streak.I have to admit, I’m pretty jealous/impressed that Schmidty would go with Judge tonight. He’s not the best pick. In my system, he’s ranked #48 tonight. But my system doesn’t take into account when megastars are on the brink of setting a MLB career milestone.
Tonight Schmidty has Maikel Garcia (KCR) for 41.
I have Garcia as #27 on my list today. All his stats for today look good enough. The one alarm, and it’s just a slight alarm, is the PHI relief pitching ranks in the top 60% for H9 (meaning they give up slightly less hits than other team’s relief staff.
Hopefully Garcia gets a hit against PHI’s starter Taijuan Walker who is in the top 19% for H9 (who does give up a good amount of hits).
It’s just curious to me how people make their selections. Nothing stands out to me with Garcia. He’s not even listed on either of Musing’s lists today. *shrugs*
Does MLB email you something about getting a prize? I got up to 39, and never got an… oh wait. I just searched my email. I found the prizes.
I won a “A full year subscription to MLB At Bat”. I wonder if I can wait until the start of next season to redeem this. Or if I redeem it now, will it last from today until September 14, 2026?
Oh, looking at the BTS rules, it says “All MLB.TV and At Bat prizes must be redeemed during the year in which they were received.” Ok, well, I guess I’ll redeem that MLB At Bat subscription and see how long it lasts.
Luis ArraezJackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio for 13.At this point in the season, I’m just going with whatever my system spits out. Normally, I wouldn’t make the same double-down for three consecutive games, but whatevs. I’m riding this out to see where it lands me.
Correction: Luis Arraez is not in the starting lineup today.
My backups:
3. Nick Gonzales (PIT) has a goose egg the prior day
4. Gabriel Moreno of ARI (not in lineup)
5. Jake Meyers (HOU) is a rookie. I tend to avoid rookies, if possible.
6. Jackson Merrill (SDP)
also a rookie, but I feel better with him. Oops. Merrill is not a rookie. Hello. He finished 2nd in ROY last year. I’m merging 2024 and 2025 in my head. That’s probably why I feel better about Merrill. He felt more established. Of course, that’s why, he’s in his second year.It’ll be a double-Jackson day.
With 11 games left in the season, dormant leader Jsimmons1‘s 34-game streak is no longer able to reach 57 games. A correct double-down every game would leave Jsimmons1 with a season-ending streak of 56 games.
It’s amusing to see BurghBall doubling-down with his/her streak of 33 games. BurghBall could only finish with a streak of 55 games. Still time to jump over lotank‘s season-best 50-game streak for $10,000. (btw, lotank continues to make picks and currently has a 10-game streak)
BurghBall kinda messed up, though. In the middle of September, he/she started doing single picks. 9/13, 9/14, and 9/15 were each single picks that got BurghBall to 27, 28, and 29. If BurghBall did double-downs on those days, he/she would stand a chance of breaking 56.
The odd thing is that when BurghBall started their streak on 8/28, they did double-downs for most of the streak. But for some reason, they decided to stop doing double-downs for a few days.
Jacob Wilson and Nico Hoerner for 4.
According to my system, Nico Hoerner is the hottest player in baseball (based on hits, not slugging)
I have analyzed the past 10 years of data, examining the performance of all players daily within their 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day windows. And got how much their past performance makes it more likely that they get a hit today or not.
I feed that into a system, and take all today’s players’ past performance from 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day. And then rescale that out from 1 to 100. Nico has been a 1 for the past two days.
(on the flip side, the coldest player in baseball with a 100 is Santiago Espinal of CIN.)