Please use this blog post to discuss how you are doing in MLB’s Beat the Streak this year.
I like being able to capture my thoughts on Beat the Streak during each season. Lately, those comments have been spread across Facebook, Reddit, and Bluesky. I’d like to have a place on my own site where I can record what happens throughout the year.
In past years, I would make a blog post dedicated for that season. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014: Updates would be made in the comments. It’s hard to believe I haven’t made a blog post for that since 2014. Probably because starting in 2011, I had an entire website (57hits.com) set up to talk about Beat the Streak. However, the discussions on 57hits.com would be separated across multiple blog posts.
I like the idea of having an annual discussion board. So this is the discussion board for the 2025 Beat the Streak season. I’ll continue to post on places like Reddit’s r/BeatTheStreak and the Facebook Group. But I’ll also add my personal comments to this post.
Ideas for what to talk about:
- What is your pick average?
- What’s your longest streak this year?
- Who stopped your streak?
- Excited about any players you are starting?
I welcome you to add any comments about your 2025 streaks on this post. Thank you.
If you aren’t signed up for Beat the Streak, you can play at mlb.com/apps/beat-the-streak/game
So far this year, my longest streak is 8 games. Techniques I’ve used so far:
1. If my streak is at zero, I pick the worst possible players. Just for fun.
2. Once or twice a week, I’ll make sure I have all my “Future Picks” filled. I generally randomly pick two players per day from the “Suggested” tab in the Beat the Streak site. I try to vary my picks for the week.
3. Players I avoid: Elly De La Cruz. He’s been doing well this year, currently 4th for most games with a hit. However, last year, he was 9th for most games without a hit. I want consistency. I will not forget his 2024 performance.
4. If I do slightly more detailed picking, I use BaseballMusing’s daily picks. https://www.baseballmusings.com/?cat=2808
5. Another good source that I use sometimes is lawrencec95’s Substack. Sometimes he’ll post a spreadsheet each day called “BIG SHEET”. The spreadsheets include hitting stats for:
– % games with hit
– H/PA
– xbh/PA
– last two games
For each batter, he includes the starting pitcher’s name; and the pitchers 2025 H/BF and 2025 xbh/bf.
Joc Pederson (TEX) and Ryan McMahon (COL) are in the battle for the first starter to reach 20 hitless games in 2025.
MLB recommends Javy Baez for Beat the Streak on Wednesday. Apparently, MLB’s recommendations don’t factor in previous years’ stats.
We’ve reached 10 users who have got streaks of 40+ games.
Bobby Witt Jr is the first player this year to reach 40 games with at least one hit.
Man. I thought I had the best Beat the Streak strategy: Always pick two players from a team that is playing the Rockies in Colorado.
The number of hits the Rockies pitching allows while at home is on pace to be the 2nd most hits allowed at home since 1936.
Since 1936, the team that has allowed the most hits at home is the 1999 Rockies. That 1999 Rockies team ranks third all-time.
However, Trea Turner did not get a hit. 0-for-3. Turner has the 16th most games with a hit this year. And he’s 14th for best GHP (Games with a Hit Percentage).
Ah well. My 8-game streak is over.
I thought the same thing but it’s baseball and these pitchers are human and everyone can have a off day and screw us fans
.
That’s what makes this game so great. Nothing is completely predictable.
So far this year, Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have a GHP of 80% or higher. (GHP is Games with a Hit Percentage). Judge 83%, Witt Jr 80%.
In the past ten years, there has been only six players who finished with a GHP of 80% or higher.
Ohtani pulled through and got a hit last night. 1-for-4. My streak is now nine games. I was nervous when he started the game with two strikeouts, and the Dodgers had only one hit.
I was at 8 in a row, and needed Acuna to get a hit in last bat and he got it and then next night didn’t show up vs shitty pitcher
I finally got a 10-game streak in Beat the Streak!
The Mets are playing the Rockies in Colorado Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Someone on r/BeatTheStreak said:
I’m glad for the tip about Lindor. I had him slotted, but now I removed him.
I heard Juan Soto was hot recently, but then I looked at his game logs. He went hitless for three games against the White Sox last week. Since the Mets are playing the Rockies in Colorado, it’s tempting to play Juan Soto. And I can’t believe I’m not using him against the Rockies, but man, three hitless games against the White Sox.
Look at mets stats vs there pitchers and I think best Rockies pitcher is Marquez and not saying much
Yeah, the Rockies are having a historically bad season at home this year.
Since I’m at 11, I’m being careful. I’m only going with players who are playing when the Rockies, A’s, or Orioles are at home. (All three teams are doing poorly at home, and it’s better to pick away teams, because your player’s team is guaranteed to bat in the 9th)
Erik is picking Javier Baez against the Cubs today for BTS. Ben Brown is pitching (5.72 ERA).
I’m at 16 (my 3rd longest streak ever in 24 years). At this point, I’m going exclusively Coors Field, Camden Yards, and Sutter Health Park (A’s).
If the away team doesn’t have any good players for that series, then I simply take a break. I want to make this stretch into 20+ something.
Colorado is playing at home! Let’s see if the visiting team has anyone good to play.
Arizona is playing in Colorado. We have a bunch of good options.
Lineup position:
Against Gomber:
Last 7 team games
Normally, I would double down with Marte and Naylor. But I’m at 16 games, and I want to make sure I reach 20, so I’m doing one player a day. I almost went with Naylor, because he’s been slightly hotter than Marte lately. But Marte is leadoff, whereas Naylor is buried at 5th.
Pick: Ketel Marte
*GHP is Games with Hit Percentage
Ketel Marte is not in the starting lineup today in Colorado.
It’s tempting to play Josh Naylor. On paper, he looks great:
Makes me nervous about Naylor today:
My gut is telling me not to play Naylor. (I’m on an 18-game streak; my goal is to get 20 games. I’m going to be patient and wait this out. There’s an off-chance I might play José Ramírez in Sacramento today. Waiting for the lineups of that game to be announced.)
Beat the Streak players, rejoice! The Dodgers are in Colorado!
Which Dodger to play? Freddie Freeman or Shohei Ohtani?
Freddie Freeman
– GHP 70% (38th in MLB)
– 7 for 27 with three walks and four strikeouts against Marquez
– Last 7 days: .211
– Last 14 days: .171
His recent numbers make me nervous.
How about Ohtani?
– GHP 74% (18th in MLB)
– 3 for 8 with 1 HR, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts against Marquez
– Last 7 days: .174
– Last 14 days: .289
Boy, Ohtani has been cold the last 7 days, too. At least his cold streak doesn’t go back two weeks. I’m leaning towards Ohtani for today. Here’s hoping Ohtani can continue my streak from 18 to 19.
Here is Freddie Freeman’s log against Germán Márquez
His GHP against Marquez is 54.5% (6-for-11). I would prefer to play players with a 70% GHP.
If Freeman’s Braves days are too far behind, we can count just his Dodger days. 57% GHP (4-for-7). Still considerable lower than the 70% threshold.
My pick yesterday, Shohei Ohtani, went 1-for-5 (homerun). Extending my streak to 19 games.
I find it hilarious for the people who picked Freddie Freeman yesterday. The entire Dodgers lineup got a hit in Colorado—except for Freddie Freeman (0-for-5). The Dodgers had 9 runs and 14 hits. Surely, Freeman would have been one of those players? Nope.
Freeman has a long history facing German Marquez. He’s gotten a hit only in 57% of the game he’s faced him. A 50/50 chance? No thanks! Couple that with Freeman being cold for the past 14 games. NO THANKS!
Would Ohtani be a good pick today?
He got only one hit yesterday. I would feel much better if he got two hits. Looking at his exit velocity from yesterday’s game:
A couple of hard-hit balls. I’ll continue with Ohtani.
How about Freddie Freeman?
He got no hits yesterday against the Rockies, but did he hit the ball hard?
Meh. Nothing great. Pretty average or below average. Freeman has traditionally been a great BTS player, but his slump lately has dropped him to 54th in GHP (68%).
I’d stay away from Freeman for now.
I have been playing Beat the Streak now for maybe 5 years and probably this year I have been more dedicated to this because I have 15 different Emails meaning accounts and let me just say there is no advantage with more accounts, more confusing and harder to get long streaks. My longest streak is only 18.and 17 three times. It’s amazing how some of these fans can get over 30 in a row and always wanted to know the strategy for sure if there is one. I also realized if you go with hitters with good batting Avg vs a pitcher and your hitter has over 20 at bats and over 300 avg vs a pitcher I have actually done very well with hitters. Another tip that helped me is don’t chase stats.but.if you want to go with beat options, pick opposing teams that have high ERAs like Colorado.or Athletics for 2025. My biggest bad habit is going with top hitters every night like Judge, Witt,Soto and eventually will bite you in the ass and ruin a high streak..
I’m fairly convinced that Beat the Streak is mostly a luck game. Getting 57 correct selections in row is roughly the equivalent to flipping a coin to be heads 26 times in a row. It just takes A LOT of flipping to get a streak going. (The math I used to estimate the 26 flips in a row is picking players who have a 75% chance of getting a hit.)
Getting a streak of 18 games, and then also three 17-game streaks is VERY impressive. You may be making wise picks, but it’s also just a quantity game. More times you pick the more likely you’ll get longer streaks. With 15 different accounts, that increases your odds by 15 times. (Also, be warned, if you do break 56, MLB will not give you the reward. They totally clamp down on people with multiple accounts. They let them play, but if anyone with multiple accounts wins, you can be guaranteed MLB will not pay out.)
I like your opposing team strategy. I’ve been using that for years. Instead of using high ERAs, I go with teams that give up a lot of hits. After all, this is a game where you want hits, not runs.
It is tempting to go with the big hitters. When I’m starting a streak, I’ll get lazy and just pick whatever MLB has recommended. It’s only when my streak gets longer, that I’ll do more research. Right now I’m riding on a 21-game streak, so my research has gone more in-depth.
Best hitters I use in beat the streak and always gets me started with 2 in a row is the Lowe .Brothers for some reason. How many of you get scared around 10 in a row?
The Lowe Brothers? Who are they? I know Brandon Lowe is doing well this season. But I didn’t know he had a brother.
Ohtani carried me into a 20+ game streak. Before the Dodgers were in Colorado, I was at 18 games. I picked Ohtani for all three games in Colorado. He got me to 19, 20, and 21 games.
Now that Colorado is no longer playing at home, I can’t pick a Colorado opponent for this series.
What opponent to pick? Teams with the most hits allowed at home or away 2025
The median for home is 8.41 The median for away is 8.17
So even if you get down into the 8-10th worst, you are pretty close to median. The best is to stick with the top three. They are in a tier all their own, especially Colorado.
With Colorado playing away, we go down the list. The A’s are away in New York. The Orioles are at home against the Rays.
Is the Orioles starter a good pick?
Tampa Bay has never faced Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano’s last home starts:
He allows 1.075 hits per inning at home. That ranks him 29th in MLB. So yeah, Sugano is a good pitcher to face in BTS.
Which Rays batter to select
The players with the best GHP on Tampa is:
I get nervous about Brandon Lowe. Is he a good BTS pick?
Is Yandy Diaz a good BTS pick?
I don’t know what to say. I don’t like Lowe’s inflated BTS numbers this year. But at least he shows consistent exit velocity.
Diaz is underperforming in GHP this year. His last two games of exit velocity has been down.
Ok, I’ll go with Brandon Lowe today.
The Cubs’ Nico Hoerner has moved himself into the 5th best player for Beat the Streak. (Games with a Hit Percentage)
I almost picked Vladimir Guerrero Jr for Saturday, June 28th. Thankfully, I did not pick him, because he didn’t get a hit. My 22-game streak is intact.
So far, I’ve been picking players who face specific teams at home (Colorado, Baltimore, and Sacramento). I was going to try a new strategy with picking who was facing a pitcher with the worst hits/game ratio.
The pitchers who give up the most hits at home:
Hits per inning:
Lucas Giolito pitched at home in Boston on Saturday. They faced the Blue Jays.
The Blue Jays’ best BTS hitters, based on GHP (Games with Hit Percentage)
Bo Bichette
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
I didn’t like Vlad’s last 7 games stat. But he’s 3rd with GHP this season. I never picked him, because we were hosting a birthday party for relatives at our house on Saturday. Lately, I like to make sure that the player is in the lineup before picking him. I didn’t have a chance to check the lineups on Saturday. Hence, no pick. And now my 22-game streak continues!
Even though Lucas Giolito has the 2nd worst hits per inning stat, he did very well against the Blue Jays. 7 innings, 6 hits. Then the Red Sox reliever pitched two innings of no-hit ball.
This all teaches me that I’m going to stick with the opposing team method, not the opposing pitcher.
Today Colorado, Baltimore, and Sacramento are not playing at home. Thus, I’m not making a pick for today. Tomorrow, Colorado hosts the Astros. I’ll most likely go with Jeremy Peña. —oh wait. Jeremy Peña was out the last two games against the Cubs because of a rib injury. Hmmm. I will not be selecting Jeremy Peña.
The Astros sorted by GHP:
Man, I’m not sure if I”m really feeling Jake Meyers. Who is Jake Meyers? He had a 53% GHP last year.
35-year-old Jose Altuve has hit the tanker this year since he signed his big contract. It seems he’s just cruising through the rest of the four years on his contract.
Cam Smith at 67%? Not feeling that.
I might have to wait until the next series on Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
White Sox at Colorado.
Orioles will be in Atlanta.
Nope.
Giants at Sacramento.
Heliot Ramos might be good.
I took off the past week or so, because I didn’t like the team matchups.
Matt Olson for 23
(if he is batting 2nd in the lineup today against the A’s)
I’m continuing with my strategy of first looking at the teams with the worst pitching at home.
Team Home H/G
COL 11.52
ATH 10.09
BAL 9.76
WSN 9.30
ARI 9.00
LAA 9.12
So Colorado, Athletics, Baltimore.
Rockies at Boston
Mets at Baltimore
Braves at Sacramento (10:05pm EDT)
What happened to Marcel Ozuna? He was incredible last year with 75% GHP. But now he’s 58%?
Matt Olson looks like the obvious choice.
Tonight A’s are starting Jeffrey Springs
I gotta start picking someone. Matt Olson has been doing very well lately. Here’s hoping he can squeak out a hit against the median Springs on an awful A’s team at home.
I just need to wait and see if (and where) Matt Olson is in the lineup today.
I am concerned about Olson’s 0-for-7 against Springs. But I don’t take matchup stats that seriously since they are such a small sample size.
Also, I should start using the H/PA metric. I’m going to have to start using that. For BTS, it’s silly to look at batting average when I could be using the superior H/PA.
My goodness, I looked up Olson’s walk rate. He’s in the top 7% of MLB. Springs is in the top 37% for most walks. Hrmmm. Walks might kill me tonight.
Today I’m going with Pete Alonso to extend my streak to 24 games.
The Mets are in Baltimore, facing a pitcher who gives up a lot of hits. For pitchers with 4+ Games Started, Tomoyuki Sugano has a .270 H/BF, which is 17th highest out of 161 pitchers.
Yesterday, I shunned Pete Alonso because his GWP was 60% in 2024. But now his GWP is 73% (14th in MLB). He’s also 20th in MLB for GWP+(H/PA).
I still can’t get over Alonso’s GWP in 2024. He just wasn’t a Beat the Streak player. He was a swing hard, high-strikeout guy.
Although Alonso may be a new man batting behind Soto. And now that he’s in his 30s with diminishing power, in 2025, he has developed two different types of swings (thank you, Fangraphs).
Today, I’m betting that Alonso is a changed man in 2025.
Alonso for 24Soto for 24 (I think)
Oh snap. I saw u/Natural_Car_4400 picked Soto. And I was like, what‽ Soto has not been a good BTS hitter this year. But then I looked at his recent stats. Momma mia.
.385 last 7 games
.333 last 15 games
.346 last 30 games
His Savant log shows lots of 100+ Exit Velocity hits recently.
I might switch onto the Soto train tonight!
Well, peanuts. The game is delayed today because of rain. They will play a double-header tomorrow.
I don’t remember how double-headers work in Beat the Streak. There seems to be a long history of changes for double-headers and BTS.
The current official rules state:
So I didn’t have Alonso or Soto selected today. I was waiting for the lineup. So now, if I select Soto tomorrow, he’ll become a double-down pick for both games? Hmmm. I don’t like double-headers. Managers tend to rest their players during one of the games.
Yesterday, six 30+ streaks were ended due to Luis Arraez going 0-for-4.
Man. On paper Arraez looked like a great choice.
1. Recent games:
2. Pfaadt’s H/BF:
Of the 191 pitchers, Pfaadt ranks 26th for most H/BF. (Including only pitchers with at least four games started)
3. Arizona’s H/G away:
Ok, this is just median. Arizona pitching in away games is 8.26 H/G. That ranks 12th of 30.
Interesting note: Arizona’s H/G for home games is sixth worst.
Maybe this goes to show that it’s good to select a player based on their opposing team’s Home/Away stats.
Arraez gave it his all. All four outs by Luis Arraez were field outs. Two of them were hit hard.
Bo Bichette for 24
(I haven’t played in a while. I’ve been sitting on 23)
The starting pitcher for Colorado, Tanner Gordon, has the 9th worst H/BF (out of 195 pitchers with at least five starts)
Bo Bichette of Toronto
I’m currently on 24. It feels like it’s been a long crawl to get to 24. I’m not even halfway to 50 yet! Although my taking 2+ weeks off after the All-Star break probably was not the best choice in time management. lol.
With today being August 5, time is going to start running out to reach 57. For now, my goal is to get to 30. I’ll continue single picks to reach 30. I’ll keep an eye out for when I need to start double-picking to reach 57 before the season ends. That would stink to end the year with a 50-game streak. Of course, that won’t happen to me, because I’d be shocked if I reach 30.
I just made a spreadsheet of the remaining home games for the Rockies, Orioles, and A’s. (These are the teams that give up the most hits at home)
– Rockies: 22 home games remaining
– Orioles: 23 home games remaining
– A’s: 19 home games remaining
Overlapping across the three teams, there are 51 home games remaining.
Now, sometimes the only home game is against a team like Pittsburgh, which has no good BTS hitters. I need to remove those.
To determine who is a good BTS hitter, I’ll use the metric of GHP+(H/PA). (Games with a Hit, Hits per Plate Appearance). I’ll use only the top 25 players. There are 36 home games remaining against a top-25 hitter.
My streak is at 24 games. I need 33 games to reach 57. Thus, I have a 3-game buffer until I need to use at least one double-pick.
There are going to be days when I don’t make a pick. Either I don’t research, or the top-25 hitter for the matchup is in a slump that day. I imagine I will soon reach the point where I need to make double picks.
Today I have Bo Bichette for 25
The Colorado starting pitcher, Anthony Molina, has started no games this year. He pitched only 8.2 innings in 2025. (59.2 IP, 1 GS last year). If he had enough innings, his 13.5 H9 would rank him easily in the top 20 worst pitchers.
My 24-game streak is currently the 22nd-best active streak in Beat the Streak.
Someone on Reddit asked why I took two weeks off after the All-Star break. My response:
Originally, I wanted 7-10 days after the All-Star break, because I look at those stats to see how a player is performing. With the All-Star break, those recent stats don’t really apply much.
As with many things, you give yourself 7-10 days, it ends up being 18-21 days. (Actually, I don’t know where else this applies. But I just got wrapped in other things. Like looking up stuff about “The Sandberg Game” as I’m making a detailed scorecard about the game with comments about almost every at bat. Fun fact: most people don’t know. After Sandberg hit his two game-tying home runs in the 9th and 10th inning… the first batter in the 11th inning, Sandberg almost dropped the popup. In the replay, you can see the ball squirting out of his glove).
Someone on Reddit commented: “A little scared of the Jays because sometimes kyle Freeland will randomly decide to pitch well.”
Yipes. I have Bo Bichette today for 26.
I was getting excited to see Freehand’s overall stats. 11th worst pitcher for H9 (min. 5 GS). Well, to u/Deep_Slice875’s point, I’m riding on the fact that they are playing in Colorado.
Bo Bichette went 2-for-6 in Toronto’s incredible 20-1 drubbing of the Rockies. 24 hits total in that game. My streak is now at 26.
Today I updated my team pitching stats. The Nationals are now a top-tier team for giving up the most hits at home.
Home H/G
COL 11.38
WSN 9.84
ATH 9.54
BAL 9.46
So far, I’ve been building my 26-game streak on selecting players who are playing away in Colorado, Sacramento, or Baltimore. Now I will be adding Washington DC to the mix.
Therefore, today the Athletics are playing in Washington. Normally, Jacob Wilson would be a good pick. He ranks 16th for (GHP)+(H/PA). (Games with a Hit Percentage + Hits per Plate Appearance).
But man. Wilson’s latest numbers are awful.
Imagine selecting a player who has 3 hits in his last 7 games!
I’ll be sitting today’s games out.
Tomorrow, the A’s start a new series in Baltimore. But I’m not selecting any A’s from that series. But with Washington in the mix, the Giants start a series tomorrow against the Nationals. I’ll be taking a closer look at Heliot Ramos tomorrow.
Holding tight at 26.
I might be a fool, but I’m not playing anyone in this current series. With a streak of 26 games, I’m continuing to be very careful, and make just one selection a day. And skipping days I don’t like. Right now, my goal is 30. Will I run out of days to reach 57?
To watch for 57, I made a spreadsheet of the schedule for the rest of the season, including the top five worst pitching teams at home: COL, BAL, ATH, WSN, and LAA.
Skipping this current series will bring me down to five more days before I have to start making double-picks.
In the meantime, this current series on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… of the top five worst pitching teams at home (COL, BAL, ATH, WSN, LAA) only one team is at home. A’s at Baltimore.
I’m not digging on Jacob Wilson or Brent Rooker.
The series starting Monday looks much better.
Ohtani for 27
First, I was considering the Rays at A’s matchup.
A’s 3rd worst Home H/G.
TBR
A’s pitcher Jeffrey Springs
Skipping this pitcher. Onto the next matchup.
Dodgers at Angels.
LAA 5th worst Home H/G
Angels pitcher José Soriano
Shohei Ohtani:
Freddie Freeman:
Ohtani gets more hits recently, so I’ll go with him.
Ohtani came through for me against the Angels. He went 1-for-3. His only hit came in the 8th inning, a HR on a 3-2 count. That was the Dodgers’ first run in the game.
Ohtani’s plate appearances:
– Field out (100.1 EV)
– Strikeout
– Walk
– Home Run (100.0 EV)
With my streak at 27, I’m now in 8th place. You can see me above the fold in the leaderboard.
No picks for today. Sitting happy at 27th place.
Here’s my rationale for the no-picks.
Of my five teams that I will play against at their home park, three of them have matchups.
—
LAD at LAA
Starting pitcher: Victor Mederos
– Has played in only two games this year (4 IP)
– 2024 5.1 IP, 2023 3.0 IP
—
TBR at ATH
Starting pitcher: Jacob Lopez
– 55th out of 198: H/9 @home or @away
– 60th out of 185: H/9 @home
—
SEA at BAL
Starting pitcher: Dean Kremer
– 37th out of 198: H/9 @home
– 130th out of 198: H/9 @home or @away
I get a little nervous that his home stats are wacked out this year.
Kremer has been a lot worse at home this year.
– Josh Naylor- 6th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– Julio Rodríguez- 55th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– Cal Raleigh- 67th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– J.P. Crawford- 73rd (GHP)+(H/PA)
– Jorge Polanco- 104th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– Randy Arozarena- 131st (GHP)+(H/PA)
– Eugenio Suárez- 151st (GHP)+(H/PA)
Josh Naylor is a beast this year. Last year he was 121st in (GHP)+(H/PA).
Normally, I’d over look Kremer’s unusual home stats. And I’d be willing to go with Josh Naylor despite his 2024 performance. But standing at 27 games, I’m not going to risk it.
I’m going with Ohtani for 28.
I like that Angels starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks doesn’t get many strikeouts and give up many walks.
Ohtani walks a ton, and will strikeout too. The two things that limit Ohtani the most.
He’s been on such a HR rampage lately. It seems like he has always been going 1-for3. Three at bats, because he walks twice. The other outs might be a strikeout. But with Hendricks on the mound, hopefully Ohtani will be less likely to walk or strikeout.
Ohtani extends my streak to 28 games.
I got lucky with Ohtani last night.
– Hendricks, Kyle Triple
– Hendricks, Kyle Strikeout
– Hendricks, Kyle Walk
– Chafin, Andrew Strikeout
– Burke, Brock Strikeout
Triple in the first, but then the rest were strikeouts and a walk. The very thing you don’t want your BTS player to do—walk or strikeout. At least put the ball into play.
Normally, a night with three strikeouts and a walk would end it. But thankfully, he started the night with a triple—very lucky.
Actually, Kyle Hendricks doesn’t walk or strike out batters very often. So, it’s a tad unusual for this to happen.
But Ohtani does strike out a lot and walk a lot. So from Hendrick’s perspective—Ohtani would be a likely candidate.
Ketel Marte for 29
Now that the Dodgers series is over with the Angels (the Dodgers got swept!), it’s onto a new series.
Here’s what we got for teams that have poor home pitching:
– ARI @COL
– SEA @BAL
– PHI @WAS
—
ARI @COL
Starting pitcher: Bradley Blalock
– 197 out of 197: H9
– 185 out of 185: H9 @home
According to H9, Blalock is literally the worst pitcher (and thus the best pitcher for BTS)
Ketel Marte
– 26th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .407 last 7 games (11 hits)
– .356 last 15 games
– .291 last 30 games
Corbin Carroll
– 38th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .258 last 7 games (8 hits)
– .271 last 14 games
– .248 last 30 games
Geraldo Perdomo
– 66th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .407 last 7 game (11 hits)
– .364 last 14 games
– .333 last 30 games
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
– 70th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .167 last 7 games (4 hits)
Marte’s numbers are looking great. Perdomo is tempting too. But Ketel has been better on the season.
—
SEA @BAL
Starting pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano
– 187 out of 197: H9
– 120 out of 185: H9 @home
Josh Naylor
– 6th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– I’m continuing to skip Naylor.
Nothing here.
—
PHI @WAS
Starting pitcher: Brad Lord
– 123 out of 197: H9
– 113 out of 185: H9 @home
Alec Bohm
– 9th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .208 last 7 games (5 hits)
Trea Turner
– 35th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .296 last 7 games (8 hits)
– .197 last 14 games
– .228 last 30 games
Nick Castellanos
– 44th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .069 last 7 games (2 hits)
J.T. Realmuto
– 46th (GHP)+(H/PA)
– .320 last 7 games (8 hits)
– .281 last 15 games
– .336 last 30 games
I would start someone against a pitcher like Lord, but I’m not keen on the production of any of the hitters other than Realmuto.
Ketel Marte gets my nod today.
Ketel Marte extended my streak to 29 games!
Even though he got just one hit last night, hit first two outs were hard hit.
Pitcher Result EV
Blalock, Bradley Field Out 97.4
Blalock, Bradley Field Out 98.6
Blalock, Bradley Double 111.6
Molina, Anthony Walk
Anderson, Nick Field Out 83.6
Ketel Marte for 30
Here are the worst home teams with the worst H/G pitching at home:
ARI @COL
LAA @ATH
PHI @WAS
Of these matchups, today is the first time I’m looking at Vegas’ implied runs stats.
—
ARI @COL
– ARI 1st implied runs via Vegas (6.92)
– COL Starting pitcher: Tanner Gordon
– 198 out 198 H9
Well, this makes it obvious to go with Ketel Marte—even with his high walk rate. Tanner Gordon is the 34th lowest BB9 out of 198 pitchers. So Gordon doesn’t walk a lot of hitters. Thanks to u/Deep_Slice875’s great help, I’m going to start looking at hitter’s BB/PA.
—
LAA @ATH
– LAA 4th implied runs via Vegas (5.12)
– ATH Starting pitcher: Jack Perkins
– Only two starts. His 6.0 H9 would place him 6th best
Skip.
—
PHI @WAS
– PHI 14th implied runs via Vegas (4.52)
– WAS Starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
– 109 out of 198 H9
Vegas has PHI at 14th implied runs‽
Skip.
—
PIT @CHC
– CHC 2nd implied runs via Vegas (5.23)
– PIT Starting pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft
– Has started only two games. Of his 36.2 IP, he has 9.1 H9. That would normally place him at 129 out of 198.
For fun, I went outside my normal five teams. Vegas had the Cubs 2nd in implied runs against Pittsburgh. Seems odd, considering the Cubs offense has been slugging. Plus, Ashcraft is not the worst, he’s just below average.
Skip.
—
Ketel Marte is my pick tonight.
Ketel Marte got my #BeatTheStreak to 30 games! I’ve been playing this game for 21 years. This is the first time I reached 30 games!
Ketel Marte was the popular pick among the long streaks. Funny how many people tried to double-down with Perdomo also from Arizona.
The badge says 0.2% of players have this badge. All season I’m ranked 350th. 484 players have 29 games. So 483 players have this badge. That means there are 241,500 players in Beat the Streak.
Marte’s first two outs had good exit velocity. His only hit came on a soft 68.5 EV single in the top of the 6th. The pitch was right down the middle.
Pitcher – Result – EV
Gordon, Tanner – Field Out – 98.3
Gordon, Tanner – Field Out – 94.3
Gordon, Tanner – Single – 68.5
Mejia, Juan – Walk
I suppose I have my sights on a 40-game streak now.
No picks for today.
—
The teams with poor home pitching for this series.
ARI @COL
LAA @ATH
PHI @WAS
—
ARI @COL
– ARI 1st implied runs via Vegas (6.4)
– COL Starting pitcher: Chase Dollander (R)
– 167 out 206 H9
– 182 out of 206 H9 @home
– 12th out of 206 BB9
– 53 out of 206 SO9
Ketel Marte
– 358 out of 401 K9
– 22 out of 401 BB9
Pitcher – Result – EV
Gordon, Tanner – Field Out – 98.3
Gordon, Tanner – Field Out – 94.3
Gordon, Tanner – Single – 68.5
Mejia, Juan – Walk
Corbin Carroll
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Skipping Arizona
—
LAA @ATH
– LAA 7th implied runs via Vegas (5.1)
– ATH Starting pitcher: Luis Morales (R) – ATH
– Started 1 game. Only 4.2 innings pitched this year.
Skipping LAA
—
PHI @WAS
– PHI 3rd implied runs via Vegas (5.38)
– WAS Starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli (R)
– Started 2 games. 9.1 innings pitched. Last year 4.1 innings pitched.
Skipping PHI
—
As we get into September we are going to see more Minor League callups with pitchers of an unknown record. Might not be too good going into September with a 30-something streak. Oh well.
Result: I’m not picking anyone today.
Ketel Marte wasn’t in the game yesterday. So I skipped Sunday. Still at 30.
Boy. I really dodged a bullet by not playing Marte yesterday. I went to select him a bit later in the day. But the UI of Beat the Streak told me he wasn’t in the starting lineup, so I didn’t pick him.
Ends up, he pinch-hit in the game and went 0-for-2. (field outs of 82.2 and 42.8 EV)
Lots of people in the leaderboards picked Marte, and thus had their streak end. Two of the #14-ranked players had their 26-game streak end because of Marte.
Teoscar Hernández for 31
Teoscar’s batting order count this year:
Order Count
2 5
3 19
4 42
5 30
6 3
7 1
9 1
Ohtani carries me to 31
Boy, I really dodged another bullet yesterday. I was going to start Teoscar Hernandez. But u/Deep_Slice875 replied to me that lately Teoscar tends to get pulled in the late innings.
Ohtani went 2-for-4
Pitcher Result EV
Freeland, Kyle Single 110.9
Freeland, Kyle Single 106.5
Hill, Jaden Field Out 101
Peralta, Luis Strikeout
Both hits had great EV. Even the field out had great EV.
Ohtani for 32
The Dodgers are the clear leaders in implied runs for today.
COL Starting pitcher Austin Gomber
Since we don’t have to be that concerned about walks with Gomber, I’m looking only at recent hits, and GHP rank (Games with Hit Percentage).
I know it’s a better sample size to look at H/PA, but I still like the GHP. It clarifies the field of Dodgers for me. (see attached image)
I also glance at the player’s Exit Velocity from the prior game. I feel better when a player has at least two hard-hit balls in the prior game.
Ohtani certainly fits that bill.
Pitcher Result EV
Freeland, Kyle Single 110.9
Freeland, Kyle Single 106.5
Hill, Jaden Field Out 101
Peralta, Luis Strikeout
Freeman had one high EV
Pitcher Result EV (MPH)
Freeland, Kyle Strikeout
Freeland, Kyle Double 89.6
Hill, Jaden Walk
Mejia, Juan Double 97
Teoscar had one high EV that resulted in an out
Pitcher Result EV (MPH)
Freeland, Kyle Strikeout
Freeland, Kyle Field Out 99.5
Hill, Jaden Field Out 65.8
Mejia, Juan Field Out 88.8
Ohtani brings me to 32
Another close one. Out of six plate appearances, Shohei had one hit, a HR. Although I that’s why you pick a player from a team that is expected to score a lot of runs. Your pick will be more likely to have a good amount of plate appearances.
Out of the six plate appearances, he had two hard-hit balls. I’m not sure how to feel about that. Am I expecting too much?
Pitcher Result EV (MPH)
Gomber, Austin Field Out 68.2
Gomber, Austin Home Run 115.9
Gomber, Austin Walk
Molina, Anthony Field Out 89.6
Anderson, Nick Force Out 72.5
Darnell, Dugan Field Out 94
Ohtani for 33
LAD is the clear leader in implied runs for today
(source)
(another source)
Colorado starting pitcher Tanner Gordon
Another high-hit low-walk pitcher. Perfect for Ohtani.
Although Ohtani is pitching. Does his batting performance decrease on the days he’s pitching? I took a look at nine starts this year.
That’s a .222 AVG, 6 games with a hit, 3 games without a hit (.666 GHP)
I’d say with this small sample, Ohtani does not hit as well as he normally does. A .666 GHP is lower than his normal .75 GHP. Here’s full spreadsheet with each game, and the EV for every at bat.
So yeah, Ohtani does hit a little bit less on days he pitches. But you know what? He’s facing the pitcher who gives up the most hits in all of baseball. I’d say Ohtani is still a good choice.
If I wasn’t going with Ohtani, I’d probably go with Freeman.
Since I got into the teens with my streak, I’ve told myself I’m being careful and picking just one player a day. But man, Freddie Freeman is so tempting today.
I went to baseballmusings to see how they have Freeman ranked.
OMG
I have never seen this on baseball musings. The first nine batters are all Dodgers!
Ok, yes, I will double-down and go with Ohtani and Freeman for 34.
Yeah, I’m rolling the dice on this one. But as u/siledif pointed out, there’s only 16 games left in Colorado. Might as well make use of those games, especially when you have an offensive juggernaut playing against them.
Ohtani and Freeman bring my streak to 34 games!
Boy, I got lucky with Ohtani and Freeman last night.
I was nervous picking both. But it seemed to obvious to take advantage of the starting pitcher with the worst H9 in all of baseball.
First of all, it wasn’t a bloodbath by the Dodgers. It was a bloodbath by the Rockies! They had 16 hits and 8 runs. The Dodgers bleeped out 6 hits with 3 runs.
Hilarious. The pitcher with the worst H9 gives up only four hits in six innings. Baseball.
Ohtani 1-for-3
– 102.0 double
– 99.2 field out
– walk
I had an inkling that the Dodgers would take Ohtani out early, because he was the starting pitcher. And certainly enough, they did! Pinch-hitter for Ohtani in the 8th. I guess after throwing 66 pitches yesterday, they wanted to get Ohtani into the ice bath ASAP. Shrugs. His pitch counts this year: 28, 18, 27, 31, 36, 46, 53, 54, 80, 66
Freeman 1-for-3
– HBP
– 88.1 single (4th inning)
– 97.6 field out
– 77.1 field out
In the bottom of the 8th they replaced Freeman at first with Dalton Rushing. Might be from the Hit By Pitch on his foot in the 1st inning.
Jeremy Peña for 35
Going through my routine of looking up the teams with the worst pitching at home.
Team Home H/G
COL 11.66
WSN 9.95
ATH 9.49
BAL 9.28
LAA 9.02
Today we have:
LAD @ COL
NYM @ WAS
HOU @ BAL
———————-
LAD @ COL
Ohtani rests after pitching. Freeman fouled a ball of something (and was taken out early yesterday)
Those are my two fav BTS players on LAD. The rest I’m crazy about.
Skip.
———————-
NYM @ WAS
WAS starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
He’s median in H9 and BB9
Skip.
———————-
HOU @ BAL
BAL starting pitcher: Brandon Young
He looks great! But I need a hitter who doesn’t walk much.
Man. I was loving Jeremy Peña.
Jose Altuve does not walk alot (ranks 80th). But man. He has only 3 hits in the past 7 games. No thanks.
Looking back at Jeremy Peña’s savant logs, it looks like he doesn’t really walk that much. Peña doesn’t typically have a high EV. Normally I like players with two results of 94+ EV from the day before. For Peña, I’ll lower that threshold to two results of 90+ EV from the day before.
That fits the bill. He 93.1 double and 93.4 Field Out. And baseballmusings has Jeremy Peña ranked as #3 today on both lists.
I’ll go with Peña today.
Removing Pena.
No picks for today.
Zamboniman says on Reddit: “good luck! i worry about Young though. He’s been kind of stingy lately with hits. 7.615 H/9 over his last 5 starts. Also, Pena 2/16 over the past week”
Huh. MLB lists Pena as 6 hits in 25 at bats in his last 7 games.
OOOOOH wait. I’m looking at his logs. Oh. Oh. Oh my. Look at all those goose eggs.
1-for-4 vs Bos
1-for-3 vs Bos
0-for-4 vs Bal
0-for-4 vs Bal
0-for-1 @ Det
1-for-4 @ Det
He went hitless against BALTIMORE‽ Yipes.
Um. I’m going to pull Pena today.
THANK YOU!
Yup. Pena went 0-for-4.
Wow. My 34-game streak could have totally ended right there.
Nico Hoerner for 35 (If he’s batting leadoff tonight)
Based on Pitchers’ H9, here’s today’s home teams with the worst pitching. (1 = worst. 100 = best). Yeah, I’m trying out a new system. All_H9 is 70% starting pitcher, 30% team’s relief pitching.
(see attached screenshot)
Why no Rockies? The Rockies starting pitcher Antonio Senzatela ranks a 11. The Rockies relief on the road is a 1.
The Rockies are on the road. I only look at pitching staffs at home (so I can pick a player on the road).
I just can’t get myself to pick any of the Pirates for BTS.
That leaves us with:
TOR @MIA
KCR @DET
CHC@LAA
Lots of great choices with Witt and Bichette, but I’ll go with Nico Hoerner:
To u/Deep_Slice875’s comment. If Hoerner leads off, man, that’s an obvious choice.
The Cubs are predicted for the most implied runs with Vegas.
Although, I’m a little nervous with how cold the Cubs lineup has been. If Caissie and Shaw are in the lineup, I’ll feel much better. Please, please give Tucker the rest.
The game starts soon, and there is still no lineup from the Cubs.
I’m starting to get cold feet on Hoerner. His recent five games don’t look all that great. I know the stats show that recent numbers don’t influence a player’s chances of getting a hit. But man.