Please use this blog post to discuss how you are doing in MLB’s Beat the Streak this year.
Ideas for what to talk about:
- What’s your longest streak this year?
- Who stopped your streak?
- Excited about any players you are starting?
- What is your pick average?
Leave your experiences in the comments. Thank you.
Derek Jeter recently ended a 7-game streak for me. Brock Holt snapped a six-gamer yesterday. I wrote up a blog post introducing Brock Holt as a new Beat the Streak player. That post will appear tomorrow.
My current pick average is: 50% (33 out of 66)
I haven’t had much luck playing Alexei Ramirez lately. Last night he went 0-for-4 for me.
My Pick avg is 0.387 (36/93) and batting avg is 0.259 (181/698). Since I only take top hitters in favorable pitching matchups, I have had horrible luck with this game. My longest streak was 8 and was stopped by Adam Jones, whom I am 0 for 3 with. I understand the game well, but I am baffled by my poor results.
Tonight I’m taking Cain who hits over 0.300 vs LH and RH vs. Smyly who has a 0.323 BAA vs RH. I am doubling with Calhoun, who hits 0.303 vs RH vs Lewis who has a 0.378 BAA vs LH. I may fail, but how do I not hit 0.300 with matchups like these?
Where are the games with a hit vs games started stats found?
Ian, I manually pull the GH/GS stats from baseball-reference.com’s “Play Index” and put them into a Google Sheet.
My longest streak is current at 14 thanks to the mulligan feature as today my pick was Matt carpenter who went 0-3 and pinch hit for late in game, I have used carpenter in the past even though he has a high walk rate I think his strikeout rate is to high this year to continue to be a good candidate
Matt Carpenter is still a nice pick. He ranks 31st for Games with a Hit (GH). However, when you factor in the games he didn’t get a hit, it’s a high 30. Making his percentage of games where he gets on base to be 68%, which is ranked 80th in the majors. Not good at all. He gets 3.83 AB/G, which puts him at 68th.
You might be onto something with Carpenter looking good on the surface, but really, his other stats reveal his GH might be bloated.
Also my pick percentage is .737 an ba is .336, I also like to take the ballpark and conditions into consideration ie anyone hitting in coors field
At the All-Star break:
PICK AVG: .514 (37 out of 72)
BATTING AVG: .264 (145 for 550)
I have a couple blog posts I’m writing about the most overrated Beat the Streak player, and the most underrated Beat the Streak player. They will be posted soon.
Both Melkey and Miggy Cabrera just ended my streak of 25. 🙁
52 out of 102 (.510)
210 for 750 (.280)
Wow. A 25-game streak. That’s really impressive! I am curious though, so if your picks were 52 out of 102, and you had a 25-game streak, that means before that streak you were 27-for-77, a 35%. That’s quite impressive that you were doing 35% and then went on a 25-game tear. Did you use any new strategies during that 25-game streak?
Yes, I stopped putting much faith in batter vs pitcher match-ups and went to picking guys who were hot over the last 7 days. From there I
Brad, I love that you were looking at stats from the past 7 days. What website do you use to get those stats?
Matt, I get stats from the past 7 days from my ESPN Fantasy league, by clicking on Players and then selecting Availability: All. Then click on Last 7 and sort by hits. The problem is that hitters get hot for a week, and then cool off.
Last 7 days:
14 hits: Cano, Coghlan
13 hits: Infante, Holt, Billy Hamilton, Jose Abreu.
12 hits: Pujols, Reyes, Heyward, Hosmer, JD Martinez, Blackmon
11 hits: Wright, McCann, Lowrie, Machado
Last 15 days:
24: Cano
23: Pujols, JD Martinez
22: Holt
21: Infante, Kendrick, Coghlan, Hosmer.
20: Beltre, Reyes, Pedroia, Zobrist, McCutcheon, Ruggiano, Simmons
I use the following to get the hitting streaks.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CurStreak.py
I like the mlb.com site for the last 7 days stats and bounce between that site and the ESPN mlb site. The ESPN mlb site has really good ‘Splits’ available on the player page and the ‘Go to..’. bar on the right side makes it really easy to bounce between different players.
I’ve had streaks of 18 and 15 this year using a combination of hit streaks and batting average. I find out who has the longest current streaks by clicking on this link
http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/CurStreak.py?EndDate=07%2F12%2F2014
and then pick a player who’s in the 5-9 range and who’s also batting over .300.
Bob, I really like that URL! Thanks for sharing. I’m going to start using it in my formula. Sweeeet!
My sons got had been doing it for awhile and said we ought to let dad know about this. I went 19 right out of the gate. I said this is easy to my sons. They were baffled. Now I am baffled. Now I cant seem to get more than one or two. I think it was some knowledge but mostly luck. I was picking based on bad era against good ba and winging my pick. Now I am working with ba rules but still not doing so good. Does anyone know where you can get ba against a catcher or manager or umpire? It has been fun. My wife says I am obsessed. Right now it seems two to pick is not enough and the time between games is too long. Thanks
Dan, I often wonder how much luck really does play a role in Beat the Streak. You can pick the most solid guy, and then he gets a goose egg. Goes to show how tough baseball can be. Even the top premiere players can go 0-for-4 in a day.
As far as stats for AVG against catchers or umps. I haven’t seen anything like that around. I would love if someone has a source on that.
I am also fairly obsessed too–after all, I have a website that is all about Beat the Streak! I welcome you to this discussion board, Dan. I hope to hear more from you in the comments on this site.
My longest, and current, streak this year is 11 games.
I selected Ellsbury and Dee Gordon today, with a sinking feeling that I should have looked more carefully at the KC lineup.
Previous streaks and stoppers:
Alex R
Derek Jeter has been a streak stopper for me recently. He killed my streak last night. Odd, that he would be doing this, because he’s currently ranked #30 for GH% (games with a hit percentage). He’s also ranked #15 in AB/G. But his batting average is completely average.
Hello,
Really cool blog! I was looking for more info on strategies for this game and came across your website. I use a combination of Batter verse Pitcher (BVP), Hits in the last 7 games, and hits allowed by a pitcher in their last few starts. I also try to avoid day games after a night game. So far my longest streak is 10, but I think if I am more dedicated to the strategy I could do a lot better.
My stats are:
55 for 104 (.529)
219 for 727 (.301)
My current streak is 10 but it’s my first streak I just started playing, so far for the prizes I haven’t got nothing except percentages off on MLB.com which I don’t care about, but a tip is if you have fantasy you look up a player u think is a good pick and see how has done in recent games and possibly pick him.. So far I’ve done double down every time because it’s 2 people and also the season is now coming to a close, I know I won’t get 57 but I’m trying to get to at least 30.. Is there any more tips and tricks
Picking players on visiting teams is a good practice. This ensures that players team will hit in the 9th regardless of score.
Also, I usually make picks in the morning before lineups are posted so I like to pick American League players. There are far too many pinch-hit situations in the National League involving the pitcher that might take my pick off the bench if he happens to be sitting that day. In the American League it’s likely only to happen if the game is on the line.
Direwolf, wow, those are two great tips. Picking AL players and visiting teams. One of these days I’ll have to compare the AB/G for each of these situations.
my current streak 4: my longest streak this year 18 , ended by Michael Brantley:
my stats: 74/136 (.536) , 271/994 (.273)
I am totally obssessed with bts.
Has anyone else went to claim their mulligan and still showed a 0 for their current streak? Is this a glitch? Does the mulligan take affect after the next pick? Please help!!!